Experiment

EXP 01: Uncertainty Propagation

Quantifies the uncertainty in the ocean carbon sink from sfCO₂ reconstructions and gas transfer.

Overview

Estimates of the ocean carbon sink from flux data products are affected by two dominant sources of uncertainty: the sfCO₂ reconstructions and the gas transfer coefficient. This experiment quantifies both for each sfCO₂ reconstruction method in the GCB and assesses the resulting uncertainty across all sfCO₂ reconstructions.

Lead Author

Manuscript

To be added

Experiment Information

Status:Updated annually within the GCB cycle
DOI:To be added
Testbed:None (sfCO₂ observations)
sfCO₂ reconstruction methods: 9 sfCO₂ reconstruction methods (GCB 2025):
  • VLIZ-SOMFFN (Landschützer et al., 2016)
  • Jena-MLS (Rödenbeck et al., 2014, 2022)
  • CMEMS-LSCE-FFNNv2 (Chau et al., 2022)
  • UExP-FNN-U (Watson et al., 2020; Ford et al., 2024)
  • NIES-ML3 (Zeng et al., 2022)
  • JMA-MLR (Iida et al., 2021)
  • OceanSODA-ETHZv2 (Gregor et al., 2024)
  • LDEO-HPD (Gloege et al., 2022; Bennington et al., 2022)
  • CSIR-ML6 (Gregor et al., 2019)
The set of sfCO₂ reconstruction methods is updated with each GCB release.
SOCAT mask used:Updated annually for each GCB update
Design: EXP 01 investigates how regional uncertainties in FCO₂ estimates propagate to global scale estimates of the ocean carbon sink through spatial aggregation and uncertainty quantification.